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Contenders and Pretenders: UFC 110

Posted by RJ Clifford on the 17 February 2010 | No Comments

Contenders and Pretenders: UFC 110

By RJ Clifford – rj@mmaworldwide.com – Twitter.com/rjclifford2

Welcome to Contenders and Pretenders where we break down the major fights of the week and which fighters are here to stay and which are just buying time. A contender can be a lot of things but he has be a real fighter with real skills and a future. No one trick ponies or fighters without a real future in the sport.

Pretenders are fighters that are not necessarily bad but are missing some things. Maybe they can’t decide on a weight or a promotion. Or maybe they don’t fight regularly enough.

The fight itself is also rated as a contender or pretender match. Does the fight have title implications? Doe the winner really gain something and the loser lose something? Is it relevant at all and will it be entertaining?

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (No. 4 HW) vs. Cain Velasquez (No. 9 HW)

Match: Contender - Nogueira: Contender - Velasquez: Contender

This is truly a contender’s match in every sense of the word. Both are the only two top ten fighters on the card and both are making strong cases for a title fight in the near future. With a healthy Brock Lesnar returning as early as this summer facing the winner of Frank Mir and Shane Carwin at UFC 111 in March, the winner of this bout is poised to be next in line.

Nogueira’s credentials go without saying as a former Pride and UFC heavyweight champion and the rock solid second best heavyweight in the history of our young sport. His comeback wins are a thing of legend as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt able to pull a submission almost out of anywhere. Ironically, his mystique as a fighter with an ability to win besides taking unbelievable punishment is also his greatest question mark. How much tread is left on his tires?

No such worries for Velasquez, coming in as one of the hottest young prospects in the heavyweight division and all of the UFC. The two-time wrestling All-American at Arizona State has stampeded everyone he has faced so far in the UFC. Showing good aggression and control, Velasquez has yet to face someone who can slow him down however.

While Velasquez has youth and wrestling on his side, “Big Nog” has everything else. With an ever increasing striking game, one of the most dangerous guards in MMA and a wealth of experience, the former champ has likely forgotten more MMA than Velasquez has learned to this point. As good as Velasquez has been and as bright as his star is shining, he is still a seven fight fighter facing one of the legends in the sport. Look for Nogueira to pick apart Velasquez on the feet and threaten with submissions and sweeps on the ground. Think Randy Couture at UFC 102.

Prediction: Nogueira sub RD3

Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping

Match: Pretender (For now) – Silva: Pretender – Bisping: Contender

Silva is on a BIG downward skid going 1-5 in his last six fights and 1-3 in the UFC recently. If Silva wins he is still several fights away from deserving a title shot given his losses. Getting a win over the tough Brazilian now does not mean as much as it did in the past making this a pretender bout.

4-1 as a middleweight now, Bisping is on the short list of contenders at 185 with his only loss coming to a Dan Henderson who has moved on to Strikeforce. While Bisping has made a name for himself as a decent puncher with adequate Muay Thai skills, he has quietly developed a sound wrestling and control game as well adding a nice dimension to game plan.

Dropping down to 185 for the first time may give him new life as he was always a small 205 pounder but the drop in weight won’t change the fact he has 13 years of brutal pro fighting wearing on his body. For Wanderlei’s sake, let’s hope the drop in weight means he takes weaker shots to the chin than he did against the power strikers at 205.

Bisping vs Silva should be an exciting match with two strikers however. Since Bisping has never had one punch knock out power, he will have to keep Silva at bay with his one-two punch and a steady mix of takedowns to keep “The Axe Murderer” guessing. If Bisping lets Silva get comfortable, he runs the very serious risk of being on the wrong end of a barrage of Silva’s hooks, or worse, in his Thai clinch. Very likely the worst place in the world.

Prediction: Bisping UD

Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos

Match: Pretender (Barely) – Stevenson: Contender – Sotiropoulos: Contender

Stevenson is a sub top ten fighter having only lost to absolute best 155 pounders in the UFC in BJ Penn, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. While he has shown to be a tough fighter, a future championship belt holder he is not. Stevenson is out of the title picture for sometime. Add that to the fact that a win over Stevenson will NOT propel Sotiropoulos over other top fighters in the deep 155 pound division like Gray Maynard, Tyson Griffin, Kenny Florian and Sean Sherk. This has to be a pretender’s bout.

Sotiropoulos was matched with Stevenson because he presents a big name for the only Australian on the main card. Stevenson is a huge step up in competition for a fighter who has run roughshod over his UFC competition so far. Not just a step up in quality of fighter, but in match up as well. Sotiropoulos is a game jiu-jitsu fighter but Stevenson has the wrestling and control and is lethal on top. That will be the difference maker.

Stevenson TKO 3rd

Ryan Bader vs. Keith Jardine

Match: Contender (Barely) – Bader: Contender – Jardine: Pretender

The theme of fast rising contenders taking on veterans facing hard times continues. This will either be a showcase bout for Bader coming in undefeated and knocking off his best competition so far, or a swift reality check that The Ultimate Fighter winner is not ready to play in the big kid’s sandbox.

Bader is 10-0 in his professional career and has proven to be a very formidable wrestler with a powerful right hand. While his bread and butter have served him well so far, he is going to have to make improvements. Jardine has lost four out of his last six bouts knocking him down the very tall light heavyweight ladder. However, his ability to take on all comers and wins over Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell and Brandon Vera keep him in the spotlight.

Plain and simple Bader does not have the stand up technique to trade with the unorthodox punching and leg kicks of Jardine. But he won’t need to. A few set up punches are all Bader will need to turn this into a ground and pound clinic. Jardine will keep things interesting as he always does but he simply does not have an answer for Bader’s takedowns.

Prediction: Bader UD

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Ben Rothwell

Match: Pretender – Filipovic: Pretender – Rothwell: Pretender

It is standard UFC policy to hold an important contender’s bout in the main event while at the same time holding another important bout on the same card at the same weight to create a reasonable match up for later. This is no such bout. While fans have longed for the “Cro Cop” of old he has simply not delivered a performance worthy of his past accomplishments. Rothwell has buckled every time he has faced a semi-elite heavyweight.

While Filipovic has deteriorated over the last two years he still has shown enough power to make most fighters worry. His head kick can still KO anyone and his fluid southpaw kickboxing presents enough problems.

Rothwell has proven consistent as a heavyweight defeating anyone not within top ten status and poses a lot of physical problems with his height and reach. The former IFL champion has also demonstrated decent mat skills for a guy his size.

I was tempted to go with Rothwell as I have seen “Cro Cop” just fall apart in the UFC Octagon. However a “Cro Cop” that once was should be able to defeat a Rothwell that never really was. That and Cro Cop has to know that just one good showing will have fans claiming the head kicking monster that won the Pride Grand Prix is back for good. The small fish in the big pond beats the big fish in the little one.

Prediction: Cro Cop KO2

rj@mmaworldwide.com – Twitter.com/rjclifford2